We’ve covered the historical data up to 2023. Let’s focus on the projections for 2024 and 2025, taking into account the new EUR 250,000?00,000 threshold in prime areas.
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2015-2022 (Actual/Reported Averages):
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2015: ~450 applications
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2016: ~900 applications
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2017: ~2,200 applications
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2018: ~3,800 applications
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2019: ~4,700 applications
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2020: ~1,300 applications (Pandemic dip)
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2021: ~2,800 applications (Recovery)
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2022: ~4,500 applications (Strong rebound)
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2023 (Estimated Actual):
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Q1-Q3 2023: As discussed, a massive surge due to the impending threshold increase. Official figures by August 2023 showed over 8,000 pending applications and a significant number already granted for the year. By year-end, the total number of main applications for 2023 is projected to be well over 8,000, potentially reaching 10,000+. This makes it the highest-performing year in terms of application volume due to the deadline rush.
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2024 (Projection – Adjustment Phase):
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The market will be adjusting to the new dual-zone pricing. There will likely be an initial cooling off period after the 2023 rush.
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Investors will take time to understand the new rules, identify opportunities in the EUR 250,000 zones, and evaluate the higher EUR 250,000?00,000 options in prime areas.
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Demand in the EUR 250,000?00,000 zones might stabilize at a lower volume but with higher individual investment values.
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The EUR 250,000 zones will likely see increased interest.
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Projection for 2024: We anticipate a decrease from the 2023 peak, likely settling in the range of 3,500 – 4,500 main applications. This is still a healthy number, comparable to pre-pandemic strong years.
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2025 (Projection – Stabilized Growth):
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By 2025, the market should have fully adapted to the new regulations.
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Greece’s strong tourism, economic stability, and the inherent value of EU residency will continue to drive demand.
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The program will appeal to two distinct segments: those seeking higher-value properties in prime locations and those looking for more accessible options in other regions.
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Improved processing times (a continuous goal for Greek authorities) and global marketing efforts will also play a role.
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Projection for 2025: A return to moderate growth, potentially reaching 4,000 – 5,500 main applications, as the program finds its new equilibrium. The total investment value generated in 2025 could well exceed that of pre-2023 years, even with fewer applications, due to the higher average investment.
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